Jon Garland signed for 1yr, $3.4mil to avoid arbitration.

The White Sox signed pitcher Jon Garland to a one year, $3.4mil contract today to avoid arbitration. Read the Chicago Tribune article here.

Garland was 12-11 with a 4.89 ERA last season. He pitched 217 innings, and had a BB/SO ratio of 76/113. His Win Share total for last season was 11.

This contract seems high for a pitcher of Garland's caliber. Using the Net Win Shares Value calculator over at The Hardball Times gives us a pretty decent indicator of a how much of a bargain, or loss, a players contract was to their team. A Net Win Shares Value of $0 means the player played exactly the worth of his contract. A positive dollar value means the player performed more than his contract was worth, and was therefore a bargain to his team. A negative dollar value is the exact opposite.

YEAR	CONTRACT VALUE	NET WIN SHARES VALUE
2004	$2,300,000	$-473,797
2005	$3,400,000	$-1,662,483

Last season, Jon Garland had 11 total win shares, and was expected to have 12. At $2,300,000, and being arbitration eligible, his Net Win Shares Value was $-473,797. So the Sox lost, in theory, a half million on that contract.

I also plugged in his new contract, and kept the win share totals the same, just to experiment. If Jon shows absolutely no improvement, his Net Win Shares Value is $-1,662,483.

If the Sox are to get value on this contract, Garland is going to need to have an increase of only 2 win shares. I guess the Sox feel he's capable of doing this, but his BB/SO ratio hasn't made any dramatic shifts to sell me on his "breakout season." I'm expecting same old, same old...

Prove me wrong, Jon...