Saturday, December 11, 2004

The Good...

The White Sox signed Jermaine Dye to a two year, $10.15 million dollar contract, which pays Jermaine $4mil in 2005, $5mil in 2006, and has a team option for $6mil in 2007 (or a buyout of $1.15mil.) Dye took this contract despite higher offers from other teams after he verbally agreed to terms with the White Sox. Way to go! I like the guy already. Let's see if I still like him after I look at his 2004 stats...

BAHRRBIRSBBBKOBPSLGBA/RISP
.265238087449128.329.464.240


Now, normally I'd look at his 3-year stats, but Dye's missed 153 games over the last three seasons, and 2004 was the only season in which he was relatively healthy, thus giving him the label of "Injury-Plagued," (and not "Injury-Prone") by the Chicago Tribune. (By the way Trib, I can't wait for this year's version of "Prior Watch...")

Anyway, let's start the analysis by saying that Dye is not Magglio Ordonez. If healthy (and we can't assume Maggs will be healthy ever again) Dye couldn't hold a candle to Maggs' production. His career RCAA is 5. Magglio's career RCAA is 143. Huge difference... But Dye is a servicable stopgap until Ryan Sweeney or Brian Anderson arrive (or by some miracle Joe Borchard learns how to hit a curveball.) His defense in RF is slightly better than Maggs', and the saving of $10 million in the payroll gives the team some long-term financial flexibility they wouldn't have had with Maggs.

What bothers me about Dye is his 128 K's. I'm sure Billy Beane wasn't too happy about that either. He needs to learn some plate discipline, badly. He should be drawing about 80 walks a year, and cutting those K's to below 100.

But the alarming stat... .240 BA with Runners in Scoring Position. EGADS!!! Dude, Jermaine, you've got to do better than that. Remember, the Sox were second best in the majors last year in BA/RISP. The only problem was they were second worst in getting runners on base in the first place. So, Jermaine, help your team, help yourself; draw some walks and get those hits with men on 2nd and 3rd.

Still, getting a player of Dye's caliber as cheaply as Kenny Williams did, I have to give kudos to the GM. And Dye earns bonus points for being a classy guy and honoring a verbal agreement to the White Sox. Good signing.

... The Bad...

I'm a little late here with this, but anyway...

The White Sox signed RP Dustin Hermanson to a two-year, $5 million dollar contract. The contract is $2 million for 2005, $3 million for 2006, and a team option of $3.5 million for 2007. My only question is why are we paying him so much money?

Here's his stats from last season:

IPERARAAFIPG/FK/9BB/9HR/9
131.04.53-34.121.057.03.21.0


My biggest problem with this signing is that Hermanson is, at best, a slightly above average relief pitcher. His 4.12 FIP is better than the 2004 NL average of 4.31, so there's a glimmer of hope. He commanded the dollars he got this off-season because he became the defacto closer with the Giants last season, after Robb Nen couldn't return from injuries and Matt Herges couldn't close a game to save his life. Hermanson did convert 17 of 20 save opportunities, but became expendable when SF signed Armando Benitez. His ERA as a reliever over the past 3 years is 5.67.

Kenny Williams must love his versatility as a reliever and a starter, because nothing I see with his stats lead me to believe he is worth more than $2mil per, and I'm stretching with that number. I honestly believe a pitcher like Kevin Walker could have just as productive a season as Dustin Hermanson, and for a lot less money.

I sometimes think a GM struggles most with the bullpen, since those pitchers are the guys that aren't good enough to be starters or closers, and are basically a crapshoot every year. Putting figures on that must be difficult, and as such I feel the Hermanson signing will turn out poorly for the White Sox. But, at least the Sox recognized that they have holes in their bullpen that need filling. I just wish it was somebody else they filled the hole with, like Shawn Chacon...

...The Ugly

It's sad to see one of the great players in your organization leave like Magglio Ordonez did, but it's really sad when he goes and says, "Why not the Cubs?... I think it would be a good place for me. They have great fans. They're sold out every day. They have great pitching and they have a good chance to win it all. All I want to do is win. Winning is my No. 1 priority."

What a slap to the face of White Sox fans who cheered for him and revered him for years! What else does Maggs go on to say?

"I wanted to come back, but they never made me feel comfortable that they wanted me. They never said, 'We want you here. We want you to be our franchise player.' I was almost traded to Boston. How could I feel comfortable they really wanted me after that happened?"

Never made you feel comfortable? $14 million a year isn't "comfortable?" Believe me, if I had a $14 million a year salary, I'd be pretty damn confortable. And about being traded to Boston, remember Magglio that YOU were the one who wouldn't re-sign with the Sox, and thus made you tradeable.

I liked Magglio better when he didn't say anything. Now the truth comes out. Winning is his No. 1 priority, but only after he gets the Sacajuweas. Go ahead Maggs, sign with the Cubs. If you thought Sammy Sosa got booed at Comiskey, you haven't heard anything yet...

Tuesday, December 07, 2004

The White Sox Decline to Offer Arbitration to Magglio Ordonez

I was going to wait until tomorrow to post this, but since I’m at work today, and my apartment building (with my computer in it) is being fumigated, I’ll post now. It’s inevitable anyway.

If you’re reading this, then the Sox chose not to offer Magglio Ordonez arbitration, and thus forfeited their right to compensatory draft picks in the next MLB draft. While many Sox fans will blame Magglio and his agent Scott Boras for the “loss,” the White Sox are actually making the smart business decision by not offering arbitration.

Bruce Levine on ESPN radio 1000AM is reporting that the reason Magglio had surgery in Vienna, Austria is because he is suffering from a condition called osteonecrosis, and Vienna has a facility there devoted to the treatment of that condition.

I did a little research on osteonecrosis. It occurs when a segment of the bone loses its blood supply and begins to die. The word osteonecrosis literally means "Bone-Death."

While the exact cause of the disease is still unknown, there are a couple of theories. The first is a stress fracture combined with a specific activity or trauma, like running into Willie Harris at full speed. The second is that there is a build-up of fluid in the bone that puts pressure on blood vessels and diminishes circulation to the bone. The third is that it is steroid induced. I'd say Maggs falls under circumstance one, but, well, I'll throw out circumstance three anyway.

The following are signs and symptoms of osteonecrosis:


  • Sudden pain on the inside of the knee, perhaps triggered by a specific activity or minor injury
  • Increased pain at night and with activity
  • Swelling over the front and inside of the knee
  • Heightened sensitivity to touch in the area
  • Limited motion due to pain


Osteonecrosis of the knee develops through four stages, which can be identified by symptoms and X-rays.

Stage I: Symptoms are most intense in the earliest stage. Symptoms may continue for 6 to 8 weeks and then subside. Because X-rays are normal, a positive bone scan is needed to make the diagnosis. Treatment at this point is nonoperative and conservative, focusing on pain relief and protected weight-bearing.

Stage II: It may take several months for the disease to progress to Stage II. At this point, X-rays will show that the rounded edge of the bone is starting to flatten out. An MRI or bone scan can be used to diagnose the disease. A CT scan may also be used to measure the affected area of bone area.

Stage III: By the time the disease reaches stage III (3 to 6 months after onset), it is clearly visible on X-rays and no other diagnostic tests are needed. The articular cartilage covering the bone begins to loosen as the bone itself begins to die. Operative treatments may be considered at this point.

Stage IV: At this point, the bone begins to collapse. The articular cartilage is destroyed, the joint space narrows, and bone spurs may form. Severe osteoarthritis results and joint replacement surgery may be necessary.

In terms of treatment, in the early stages of the disease, treatment is nonoperative. If the affected area is small, this treatment may be all that is needed. Options include:


  • Medications to reduce the pain
  • A brace to relieve pressure on the joint surface
  • A conditioning program with exercises to increase the strengthen of the muscles in your thighs
  • Activity modifications to reduce knee pain


If more than half of the bone surface is affected, surgical treatment may be required. Several different procedures may be used to treat osteonecrosis of the knee. Among the surgical options are:


  • Arthroscopic cleansing (debridement) of the joint
  • Drilling to reduce pressure on the bone surface
  • Procedures to shift weight-bearing away from the affected area
  • Replacement of one or both joint surfaces


Basically, what all of this means is that there are some serious doubts that Magglio can ever play baseball again. I hope he does, because no player deserves to have his career cut short because of something like this, and he certainly does not deserve to be vilified for the way he, and his agent, have handled the business end of this. He is trying to get the most he can for himself, and that’s what we’re all trying to do in this world. I think Magglio really does want to come back and play baseball, and I believe he thinks he can. I’m just not sure his knee will cooperate. And the White Sox cannot afford that $14 million risk.

But Sox fans have an equal right to be angry as well. For a team like the White Sox that can’t spend a lot of money, draft picks are the lifeblood of the organization. Of course, there is no guarantee those picks would even pan out (Joe Borchard anyone?) so I’m not seeing them as the huge “loss” that other Sox fans see them as.

This wasn’t the best situation in the world, but it is now over for the White Sox, and they did the best they could. This situation is not over for Magglio. We’ll see how he handles himself in these workouts in Anaheim, and then for whatever team signs him.

The White Sox need to look to FA now to fill the hole in RF.