Under the Radar... 2004-2005 Hot Stove Season

"Kenny, we're reading bogeys on your six. Looks like Sabean and Epstein."

"I can't shake 'em! I can't shake 'em!"



If the 2004-2005 offseason will be known for anything, it will be for Kenny Williams' "Flying Under the Radar." If you will remember, the Sox began the off-season making it publicly known that Omar Vizquel was their #1 priority. A deal was seemingly done for 2 years at $10 mil. Then, out of nowhere, Brian Sabean and the San Fransisco Giants swoop in and give Vizquel $12.25 mil and a guaranteed 3rd year. All of this for a 38 year old shortstop... AMAZING!!! Of course, if you've ever visited The Hardball Times, you know how much Sabean loves the older players.

After that incident, Kenny told the media he was going to be "Flying Under the Radar" for the rest of the off-season, and that's pretty much what he did, making surprise deals here and there. The Sox signed Dustin Hermanson and Jermaine Dye a few days after they declined to offer arbitration to Magglio Ordonez (who as of yet has not signed with another team.) Then, and probably in the most surprising and shocking move of the White Sox off-season, the White Sox sent Carlos Lee to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and a player to be named later, who turned out to be Travis Hinton, a 24-year old minor leaguer who led the Single A California League in nearly every offensive category.

That's not all, either. Kenny then tried to use the money to sign Cubs pitcher Matt Clement, but was outbid by Theo Epstien and the Boston Red Sox. So Kenny went to Plan B, Orlando Hernandez, and signed him on the cheap, 2 years at $8mil. That may end up being the best signing of the off-season, but Kenny STILL wasn't done. He then goes out and signs A.J. Pierzynski for 1 year at $2.25mil. STILL not done, Kenny then goes out and signs Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi for 2 years at $4.9mil, with a club option for a third year. Phew, let me catch my breath. Overall, the Lee deal ended up netting Podsednik, Vizcaino, Hernandez, Pierzynski, and Iguchi. The move filled four holes (leadoff hitter, 5th starter, catcher and 2nd base) and shored up the bullpen.

I decided to wait until the end of the off-season to analyze how the Sox did, as it makes more sense to analyze the moves in an aggregate rather than position by position anyway. Although there is a rumor of the Sox shopping for a backup shortstop, they appear finished. So, let's pull out the nifty table function of w.bloggar... (Note: Below are 2004 stats)

IN
PLAYER	AVG	OBP	SLG
Dye, Jermaine	.265	.329	.464
Podsednik, Scott	.244	.313	.364
Pierzynski, A.J.	.272	.319	.410
Iguchi, Tadahito	.340	.438	.573
AVERAGE	.280	.350	.453
OUT
PLAYER	AVG	OBP	SLG
Ordonez, Magglio	.292	.351	.485
Valentin, Jose	.216	.287	.473
Lee, Carlos	.305	.366	.525
Alomar/Burke	.287	.342	.358
AVERAGE	.275	.337	.460

You may be asking yourself, "Where's Willie on that chart?" Well, he's still on the team (for now), so I didn't include him. The other point I need to make before I start analyzing is that Iguchi's stats are from Japan. Aaron Gleeman over at The Hardball Times has already written the article I was about to write, about Japanese players making the transition to the US, and he went ahead and projected Iguchi's stats. So instead of me repeating the same stuff, you can read his article here. On average (remember this is a very small sample size we're dealing with, so these numbers aren't extremely accurate), there's about a 10% dropoff in batting average, 12.7% dropoff in on-base percentage, and a 24.4% dropoff in slugging percentage, which for Iguchi project to be about .300/345/.425. If you throw those numbers into the table, the new White Sox "IN" average is .270/.327/.416.

The White Sox obviously lost a lot of power. Using the new Iguchi numbers, they're down 44 points in slugging, about 9.5%. But the White Sox obviously are believing players like Podsednik and Dye will have some sort of a rebound. I see Podsednik's batting average climbing back up to the .260-.270 range, and his OBP climbing back up to around .340, but I don't see much imrpovement in Dye's numbers. At this point, I'd say that given the amount of money they paid him, and his injury record, Jermaine Dye is probably the most likely candidate for most disappointing signing of the off-season.

Now let's look at the win shares exchanged by the White Sox this off-season:

IN
PLAYER	WIN SHARES
Dye, Jermaine	13
Podsednik, Scott	15
Pierzynski, A.J.	13
Iguchi, Tadahito	17*
TOTAL	58
OUT
PLAYER	WIN SHARES
Ordonez, Magglio	8
Valentin, Jose	14
Lee, Carlos	24
Alomar/Burke	7
TOTAL	53

* Iguchi's win shares are based upon his projected 2005 stats. He's most similar to Placido Polanco in 2004, and Polanco's 17 win shares in 2004 are the basis of this estimate. Not very scientific, but good enough for our purposes.

Obviously, the OUT guys have more win share potential, as Magglio's 8 are way down from his career average of 19 before the 2004 season. Then again, Magglio still isn't signed, still hasn't had a workout for teams, and there are serious doubts that he will ever play again.

Looking at the win shares, the White Sox did pretty well. They didn't lose anything (if Iguchi preforms at expected levels), and the upgrade at catcher is significant. The White Sox are starting to look like a more balanced team.


As for pitching:

IN
PLAYER	W	L	SV	K	IP	ERA	ERC
Hernandez, Orlando	8	2	0	84	84.2	3.30	3.71
Hermanson, Dustin	6	9	17	102	131	4.53	4.03
Vizcaino, Luis	4	4	1	63	72	3.75	3.40
OUT
PLAYER	W	L	SV	K	IP	ERA	ERC
Jackson, Mike	2	0	0	26	46	5.01	5.31
Adkins, Jon	2	3	0	44	62	4.65	5.90
5th Starter	?

I've been digging around for 5th starter stats and can't find them yet. Without looking at them, though I can tell you they probably look pretty grim. The White Sox improved their pitching staff much more than their offense, and they didn't lose any of their key pitchers in the process. Just about anyone is better than Mike Jackson, and although the Vizcaino deal made the Hermanson signing moot, it's still great to have quality arms in your pen. Orlando Hernandez, even if he has an ERA in the high 4's, is a significant improvement over the 5th starter. That spot in the rotation has been the black hole of the White Sox for years, and I'm very happy to see they've finally done something about it.

I've also included Bill James' ERC (component ERA) stat, which computes what a pitcher's ERA should have been based on his performance, just to see who over/underachieved. Also, win shares for Hernandez, Hermanson, and Vizcaino are 9, 6, and 6 respectively.

Conclusion:
Though the White Sox did not compensate for their biggest offensive loss (Carlos Lee) they were able to use the money saved on his contract to pick up 5 players, and fill 4 holes in their lineup. It is really quite amazing what Ken Williams was able to do in just moving one contract. However, though the Sox may look like a different team, looking at the numbers shows that they are not necessarily better. I'm not going to go and predict a 90-win season or anything, but the White Sox are at least exciting again. How long that excitement lasts is the next question.