2005 State of the White Sox: Part 1

Welcome to the Sabermetric White Sox 1st Annual State of the White Sox Address. As Spring Training quickly approaches, it is time to look to the past, present, and future of the Chicago White Sox organization. What will follow is an examination of the past season, the current roster, and the White Sox farm system. So, without further ado:

2004 RECAP:

2004 will go down in the annals of Sox history as another lost season. The White Sox were off to a quick start with new manager Ozzie Guillen at the helm, going 13-8 in April, and 16-12 in May, thanks in part to a hot start by Juan Uribe and the surprisingly steady play of Aaron Rowand. They were in 1st place in the AL Central in June, but had not been able to put the Twins away. Kenny Williams' surprising acquistion of Freddy Garcia seemingly sealed the deal for the Sox, but a collision between Magglio Ordonez and Willie Harris sent Ordonez to the DL with a knee injury, that would require multiple surgeries. Despite a brief comeback, Ordonez was more or less lost for the season. Soon after, Frank Thomas went down with an ankle injury, and he was out for the season. The Sox continued to play hard, though, and despite the losses of their 3 and 4 hitters, were able to put together a 5 game winning streak before the All-Star break, and limp to a 12-13 June record. The Sox ran out of gas, though, in July. A contreversial collision at the plate between Torii Hunter and Sox catcher Jaime Burke turned the tide for the Twins, and left Sox fans scratching their heads as to why Ozzie didn't order a retaliation. It was the start of a 7 game losing streak and a tailspin from which the Sox would not recover. Carl Everett and Robbie Alomar were once again acquired, and Esteban Loaiza was traded for Jose Contreras in a vain attempt to save the season. The Sox would go 11-16 in July, 12-17 in August, and only a brief spark in September and October, 17-12, and 2-1 respectively, prevented the Sox from finishing behind Cleveland for the 2nd spot in the AL Central.

LOOK AT 2005:

The White Sox were busy in the 2005 offseason. In: Jermaine Dye, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, A.J. Pierzynski, Orlando Hernandez, Tadahito Iguchi. Out: Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin, Robbie Alomar, Mike Jackson.

Let's go position by position and see what the Sox have going for them. I'm going to use Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections, TangoTiger's Marcel's, and BaseballThinkFactory's ZiPS for this discussion. These are all 2005 projections, by the way.

Corner Infield

Paul Konerko 1B PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG PECOTA .276 .353 .494 Marcel's .274 .345 .485 ZiPS .276 .352 .497 AVERAGE .275 .350 .492
Joe Crede 3B PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG PECOTA .266 .321 .459 Marcel's .261 .315 .444 ZiPS .258 .313 .462 AVERAGE .262 .316 .455
Ross Gload 1B/OF PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG PECOTA .270 .318 .435 Marcel's .295 .355 .454 ZiPS .298 .339 .468 AVERAGE .288 .337 .452

**Before you scream at me, I'm going to put Frank Thomas in with the DH's.**

Paul Konerko is obviously the new leader and face of the Chicago White Sox. That's what happens when you finally put together a full season of great stats, especially when guys like Thomas and Ordonez go down and you pick up the slack. While the Sox may have been trying to move Konerko for Randy Johnson, now that they have moved Lee instead, Konerko appears to be the man on the South Side. He's in a contract year, and will demand big bucks, but look for the White Sox to get a deal done with him sometime during the season. If anyone benefitted from the renovation at the Cell, Konerko was it. He hit 41 HR in 2004, 29 of which came at the Cell. Those 29 home park HR led the league, by the way. Though it's unfair to expect similar production from Konerko next season, he should probably only suffer a slight drop-off in all categories, especially if he doesn't improve on his road stats. But, with balls flying left and right out of the cell, Paulie will once again be looked to as the main power source in 2005.

Joe Crede is still a black hole at 3rd. This guy has lived on potential for years, and followed up a sub-par 2003 season (.261/.308/.433) with an even worse 2004 (.239/.299/.418). At times last season, Crede was an automatic out, and remember, he was the White Sox's "Least Valuable Player" last season. This year the projections have him bouncing back at least to his 2003 levels. I don't buy it. Despite reports of Crede working all winter with hitting coach Greg Walker in a cage Crede had built at his off-season home, I'd say tops for Crede are probably .250/.305/.410, and that's being optimistic. Add to this the fact that Crede has always been overrated defensively, and is nothing better than average at 3rd. Is this the year the Sox finally realize that Crede can't cut it? Maybe, but the scary thought is they have no backup plan at 3rd. If Crede struggles out of the gate, look to Kenny to make a move to get a solid 3B in here. The White Sox can ill-afford another 2004 Joe Crede-like season from their 3rd baseman, especially when it is quickly becoming the deepest position in baseball.

Ross Gload finally got some playing time in 2004, and made the most of it, going .321/.375/.479 in 234 AB's. Rumors flew during the off-season about the Sox shipping Konerko and giving the job to Gload. Personally, I think that's a mistake. 234 AB's is not nearly enough playing time to prove to me that Gload can handle the job. The guy is a journeyman; he's as old as Konerko for pete's sake, people often forget that. For 2005, Gload has earned the right to get just as much, if not more playing time. However, he's blocked by Konerko (unless Paulie is traded or goes down with injury), Everett, and Dye. He'll spell those guys until Thomas comes back, at which point Gload will probably see a lot of the bench. If only Ross knew how to field 3rd...

Coming soon: Middle Infield...