Sabermetric White Sox

Another Sabermetric White Sox Overhaul

2005-03-29T14:13:00.000-08:00

Hello reader.

It's been a long time since I last posted. Unfortunately I've been so busy and distracted by other events (projects, NCAA's, fantasy baseball drafts) that I've neglected this site. My apologies. But I think that updating this page with regularity is probably something I'm not going to be capable of doing. It takes forever to run stats on a blog anyway. Instead I'll just randomly post here and there, whenever I get some free time to crunch White Sox numbers.

2005 State of the White Sox: Part 1

2005-02-08T00:19:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the Sabermetric White Sox 1st Annual State of the White Sox Address. As Spring Training quickly approaches, it is time to look to the past, present, and future of the Chicago White Sox organization. What will follow is an examination of the past season, the current roster, and the White Sox farm system. So, without further ado:

2004 RECAP:

2004 will go down in the annals of Sox history as another lost season. The White Sox were off to a quick start with new manager Ozzie Guillen at the helm, going 13-8 in April, and 16-12 in May, thanks in part to a hot start by Juan Uribe and the surprisingly steady play of Aaron Rowand. They were in 1st place in the AL Central in June, but had not been able to put the Twins away. Kenny Williams' surprising acquistion of Freddy Garcia seemingly sealed the deal for the Sox, but a collision between Magglio Ordonez and Willie Harris sent Ordonez to the DL with a knee injury, that would require multiple surgeries. Despite a brief comeback, Ordonez was more or less lost for the season. Soon after, Frank Thomas went down with an ankle injury, and he was out for the season. The Sox continued to play hard, though, and despite the losses of their 3 and 4 hitters, were able to put together a 5 game winning streak before the All-Star break, and limp to a 12-13 June record. The Sox ran out of gas, though, in July. A contreversial collision at the plate between Torii Hunter and Sox catcher Jaime Burke turned the tide for the Twins, and left Sox fans scratching their heads as to why Ozzie didn't order a retaliation. It was the start of a 7 game losing streak and a tailspin from which the Sox would not recover. Carl Everett and Robbie Alomar were once again acquired, and Esteban Loaiza was traded for Jose Contreras in a vain attempt to save the season. The Sox would go 11-16 in July, 12-17 in August, and only a brief spark in September and October, 17-12, and 2-1 respectively, prevented the Sox from finishing behind Cleveland for the 2nd spot in the AL Central.

LOOK AT 2005:

The White Sox were busy in the 2005 offseason. In: Jermaine Dye, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, A.J. Pierzynski, Orlando Hernandez, Tadahito Iguchi. Out: Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, Jose Valentin, Robbie Alomar, Mike Jackson.

Let's go position by position and see what the Sox have going for them. I'm going to use Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections, TangoTiger's Marcel's, and BaseballThinkFactory's ZiPS for this discussion. These are all 2005 projections, by the way.

Corner Infield

Paul Konerko	1B
PROJECTION	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	.276	.353	.494
Marcel's	.274	.345	.485
ZiPS	.276	.352	.497
AVERAGE	.275	.350	.492

Joe Crede	3B
PROJECTION	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	.266	.321	.459
Marcel's	.261	.315	.444
ZiPS	.258	.313	.462
AVERAGE	.262	.316	.455

Ross Gload	1B/OF
PROJECTION	AVG	OBP	SLG
PECOTA	.270	.318	.435
Marcel's	.295	.355	.454
ZiPS	.298	.339	.468
AVERAGE	.288	.337	.452

**Before you scream at me, I'm going to put Frank Thomas in with the DH's.**

Paul Konerko is obviously the new leader and face of the Chicago White Sox. That's what happens when you finally put together a full season of great stats, especially when guys like Thomas and Ordonez go down and you pick up the slack. While the Sox may have been trying to move Konerko for Randy Johnson, now that they have moved Lee instead, Konerko appears to be the man on the South Side. He's in a contract year, and will demand big bucks, but look for the White Sox to get a deal done with him sometime during the season. If anyone benefitted from the renovation at the Cell, Konerko was it. He hit 41 HR in 2004, 29 of which came at the Cell. Those 29 home park HR led the league, by the way. Though it's unfair to expect similar production from Konerko next season, he should probably only suffer a slight drop-off in all categories, especially if he doesn't improve on his road stats. But, with balls flying left and right out of the cell, Paulie will once again be looked to as the main power source in 2005.

Joe Crede is still a black hole at 3rd. This guy has lived on potential for years, and followed up a sub-par 2003 season (.261/.308/.433) with an even worse 2004 (.239/.299/.418). At times last season, Crede was an automatic out, and remember, he was the White Sox's "Least Valuable Player" last season. This year the projections have him bouncing back at least to his 2003 levels. I don't buy it. Despite reports of Crede working all winter with hitting coach Greg Walker in a cage Crede had built at his off-season home, I'd say tops for Crede are probably .250/.305/.410, and that's being optimistic. Add to this the fact that Crede has always been overrated defensively, and is nothing better than average at 3rd. Is this the year the Sox finally realize that Crede can't cut it? Maybe, but the scary thought is they have no backup plan at 3rd. If Crede struggles out of the gate, look to Kenny to make a move to get a solid 3B in here. The White Sox can ill-afford another 2004 Joe Crede-like season from their 3rd baseman, especially when it is quickly becoming the deepest position in baseball.

Ross Gload finally got some playing time in 2004, and made the most of it, going .321/.375/.479 in 234 AB's. Rumors flew during the off-season about the Sox shipping Konerko and giving the job to Gload. Personally, I think that's a mistake. 234 AB's is not nearly enough playing time to prove to me that Gload can handle the job. The guy is a journeyman; he's as old as Konerko for pete's sake, people often forget that. For 2005, Gload has earned the right to get just as much, if not more playing time. However, he's blocked by Konerko (unless Paulie is traded or goes down with injury), Everett, and Dye. He'll spell those guys until Thomas comes back, at which point Gload will probably see a lot of the bench. If only Ross knew how to field 3rd...

Coming soon: Middle Infield...

Under the Radar... 2004-2005 Hot Stove Season

2005-01-26T13:05:00.000-08:00

"Kenny, we're reading bogeys on your six. Looks like Sabean and Epstein."

"I can't shake 'em! I can't shake 'em!"

If the 2004-2005 offseason will be known for anything, it will be for Kenny Williams' "Flying Under the Radar." If you will remember, the Sox began the off-season making it publicly known that Omar Vizquel was their #1 priority. A deal was seemingly done for 2 years at $10 mil. Then, out of nowhere, Brian Sabean and the San Fransisco Giants swoop in and give Vizquel $12.25 mil and a guaranteed 3rd year. All of this for a 38 year old shortstop... AMAZING!!! Of course, if you've ever visited The Hardball Times, you know how much Sabean loves the older players.

After that incident, Kenny told the media he was going to be "Flying Under the Radar" for the rest of the off-season, and that's pretty much what he did, making surprise deals here and there. The Sox signed Dustin Hermanson and Jermaine Dye a few days after they declined to offer arbitration to Magglio Ordonez (who as of yet has not signed with another team.) Then, and probably in the most surprising and shocking move of the White Sox off-season, the White Sox sent Carlos Lee to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and a player to be named later, who turned out to be Travis Hinton, a 24-year old minor leaguer who led the Single A California League in nearly every offensive category.

That's not all, either. Kenny then tried to use the money to sign Cubs pitcher Matt Clement, but was outbid by Theo Epstien and the Boston Red Sox. So Kenny went to Plan B, Orlando Hernandez, and signed him on the cheap, 2 years at $8mil. That may end up being the best signing of the off-season, but Kenny STILL wasn't done. He then goes out and signs A.J. Pierzynski for 1 year at $2.25mil. STILL not done, Kenny then goes out and signs Japanese import Tadahito Iguchi for 2 years at $4.9mil, with a club option for a third year. Phew, let me catch my breath. Overall, the Lee deal ended up netting Podsednik, Vizcaino, Hernandez, Pierzynski, and Iguchi. The move filled four holes (leadoff hitter, 5th starter, catcher and 2nd base) and shored up the bullpen.

I decided to wait until the end of the off-season to analyze how the Sox did, as it makes more sense to analyze the moves in an aggregate rather than position by position anyway. Although there is a rumor of the Sox shopping for a backup shortstop, they appear finished. So, let's pull out the nifty table function of w.bloggar... (Note: Below are 2004 stats)

IN
PLAYER	AVG	OBP	SLG
Dye, Jermaine	.265	.329	.464
Podsednik, Scott	.244	.313	.364
Pierzynski, A.J.	.272	.319	.410
Iguchi, Tadahito	.340	.438	.573
AVERAGE	.280	.350	.453
OUT
PLAYER	AVG	OBP	SLG
Ordonez, Magglio	.292	.351	.485
Valentin, Jose	.216	.287	.473
Lee, Carlos	.305	.366	.525
Alomar/Burke	.287	.342	.358
AVERAGE	.275	.337	.460

You may be asking yourself, "Where's Willie on that chart?" Well, he's still on the team (for now), so I didn't include him. The other point I need to make before I start analyzing is that Iguchi's stats are from Japan. Aaron Gleeman over at The Hardball Times has already written the article I was about to write, about Japanese players making the transition to the US, and he went ahead and projected Iguchi's stats. So instead of me repeating the same stuff, you can read his article here. On average (remember this is a very small sample size we're dealing with, so these numbers aren't extremely accurate), there's about a 10% dropoff in batting average, 12.7% dropoff in on-base percentage, and a 24.4% dropoff in slugging percentage, which for Iguchi project to be about .300/345/.425. If you throw those numbers into the table, the new White Sox "IN" average is .270/.327/.416.

The White Sox obviously lost a lot of power. Using the new Iguchi numbers, they're down 44 points in slugging, about 9.5%. But the White Sox obviously are believing players like Podsednik and Dye will have some sort of a rebound. I see Podsednik's batting average climbing back up to the .260-.270 range, and his OBP climbing back up to around .340, but I don't see much imrpovement in Dye's numbers. At this point, I'd say that given the amount of money they paid him, and his injury record, Jermaine Dye is probably the most likely candidate for most disappointing signing of the off-season.

Now let's look at the win shares exchanged by the White Sox this off-season:

IN
PLAYER	WIN SHARES
Dye, Jermaine	13
Podsednik, Scott	15
Pierzynski, A.J.	13
Iguchi, Tadahito	17*
TOTAL	58
OUT
PLAYER	WIN SHARES
Ordonez, Magglio	8
Valentin, Jose	14
Lee, Carlos	24
Alomar/Burke	7
TOTAL	53

* Iguchi's win shares are based upon his projected 2005 stats. He's most similar to Placido Polanco in 2004, and Polanco's 17 win shares in 2004 are the basis of this estimate. Not very scientific, but good enough for our purposes.

Obviously, the OUT guys have more win share potential, as Magglio's 8 are way down from his career average of 19 before the 2004 season. Then again, Magglio still isn't signed, still hasn't had a workout for teams, and there are serious doubts that he will ever play again.

Looking at the win shares, the White Sox did pretty well. They didn't lose anything (if Iguchi preforms at expected levels), and the upgrade at catcher is significant. The White Sox are starting to look like a more balanced team.

As for pitching:

IN
PLAYER	W	L	SV	K	IP	ERA	ERC
Hernandez, Orlando	8	2	0	84	84.2	3.30	3.71
Hermanson, Dustin	6	9	17	102	131	4.53	4.03
Vizcaino, Luis	4	4	1	63	72	3.75	3.40
OUT
PLAYER	W	L	SV	K	IP	ERA	ERC
Jackson, Mike	2	0	0	26	46	5.01	5.31
Adkins, Jon	2	3	0	44	62	4.65	5.90
5th Starter	?

I've been digging around for 5th starter stats and can't find them yet. Without looking at them, though I can tell you they probably look pretty grim. The White Sox improved their pitching staff much more than their offense, and they didn't lose any of their key pitchers in the process. Just about anyone is better than Mike Jackson, and although the Vizcaino deal made the Hermanson signing moot, it's still great to have quality arms in your pen. Orlando Hernandez, even if he has an ERA in the high 4's, is a significant improvement over the 5th starter. That spot in the rotation has been the black hole of the White Sox for years, and I'm very happy to see they've finally done something about it.

I've also included Bill James' ERC (component ERA) stat, which computes what a pitcher's ERA should have been based on his performance, just to see who over/underachieved. Also, win shares for Hernandez, Hermanson, and Vizcaino are 9, 6, and 6 respectively.

Conclusion:
Though the White Sox did not compensate for their biggest offensive loss (Carlos Lee) they were able to use the money saved on his contract to pick up 5 players, and fill 4 holes in their lineup. It is really quite amazing what Ken Williams was able to do in just moving one contract. However, though the Sox may look like a different team, looking at the numbers shows that they are not necessarily better. I'm not going to go and predict a 90-win season or anything, but the White Sox are at least exciting again. How long that excitement lasts is the next question.

Meet the new and improved Sabermetric White Sox!

2005-01-25T23:06:00.000-08:00

Well, almost... I was looking at my blog the other day and I realized how poor it probably looked on 800x600 screens, so now we're user-friendly. I'll probably tweak here and there, but it's about done. And now I can focus on what's important... baseball writing. Now that the Sox are finally done (or are they?) I'll review their off-season. Thanks for bearing with the changes.

Re-Design!

2005-01-23T17:52:00.000-08:00

Hey, I'm working on a re-design of this site. Hopefully it'll be up soon. Check back.

Wha Happened?

2005-01-03T11:27:00.000-08:00

Hey, I'm still around. It's been busy, with the holidays and all. The Sox have been busy too. Let's see, since I last posted they traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and the ever popular player to be named later. They also signed P Orlando Hernandez. I'll be doing a full write up about that trade soon. Sit tight.

The Good...

2004-12-11T13:15:00.000-08:00

The White Sox signed Jermaine Dye to a two year, $10.15 million dollar contract, which pays Jermaine $4mil in 2005, $5mil in 2006, and has a team option for $6mil in 2007 (or a buyout of $1.15mil.) Dye took this contract despite higher offers from other teams after he verbally agreed to terms with the White Sox. Way to go! I like the guy already. Let's see if I still like him after I look at his 2004 stats...

BA	HR	RBI	R	SB	BB	K	OBP	SLG	BA/RISP
.265	23	80	87	4	49	128	.329	.464	.240

Now, normally I'd look at his 3-year stats, but Dye's missed 153 games over the last three seasons, and 2004 was the only season in which he was relatively healthy, thus giving him the label of "Injury-Plagued," (and not "Injury-Prone") by the Chicago Tribune. (By the way Trib, I can't wait for this year's version of "Prior Watch...")

Anyway, let's start the analysis by saying that Dye is not Magglio Ordonez. If healthy (and we can't assume Maggs will be healthy ever again) Dye couldn't hold a candle to Maggs' production. His career RCAA is 5. Magglio's career RCAA is 143. Huge difference... But Dye is a servicable stopgap until Ryan Sweeney or Brian Anderson arrive (or by some miracle Joe Borchard learns how to hit a curveball.) His defense in RF is slightly better than Maggs', and the saving of $10 million in the payroll gives the team some long-term financial flexibility they wouldn't have had with Maggs.

What bothers me about Dye is his 128 K's. I'm sure Billy Beane wasn't too happy about that either. He needs to learn some plate discipline, badly. He should be drawing about 80 walks a year, and cutting those K's to below 100.

But the alarming stat... .240 BA with Runners in Scoring Position. EGADS!!! Dude, Jermaine, you've got to do better than that. Remember, the Sox were second best in the majors last year in BA/RISP. The only problem was they were second worst in getting runners on base in the first place. So, Jermaine, help your team, help yourself; draw some walks and get those hits with men on 2nd and 3rd.

Still, getting a player of Dye's caliber as cheaply as Kenny Williams did, I have to give kudos to the GM. And Dye earns bonus points for being a classy guy and honoring a verbal agreement to the White Sox. Good signing.

... The Bad...

2004-12-11T12:33:00.000-08:00

I'm a little late here with this, but anyway...

The White Sox signed RP Dustin Hermanson to a two-year, $5 million dollar contract. The contract is $2 million for 2005, $3 million for 2006, and a team option of $3.5 million for 2007. My only question is why are we paying him so much money?

Here's his stats from last season:

IP	ERA	RAA	FIP	G/F	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
131.0	4.53	-3	4.12	1.05	7.0	3.2	1.0

My biggest problem with this signing is that Hermanson is, at best, a slightly above average relief pitcher. His 4.12 FIP is better than the 2004 NL average of 4.31, so there's a glimmer of hope. He commanded the dollars he got this off-season because he became the defacto closer with the Giants last season, after Robb Nen couldn't return from injuries and Matt Herges couldn't close a game to save his life. Hermanson did convert 17 of 20 save opportunities, but became expendable when SF signed Armando Benitez. His ERA as a reliever over the past 3 years is 5.67.

Kenny Williams must love his versatility as a reliever and a starter, because nothing I see with his stats lead me to believe he is worth more than $2mil per, and I'm stretching with that number. I honestly believe a pitcher like Kevin Walker could have just as productive a season as Dustin Hermanson, and for a lot less money.

I sometimes think a GM struggles most with the bullpen, since those pitchers are the guys that aren't good enough to be starters or closers, and are basically a crapshoot every year. Putting figures on that must be difficult, and as such I feel the Hermanson signing will turn out poorly for the White Sox. But, at least the Sox recognized that they have holes in their bullpen that need filling. I just wish it was somebody else they filled the hole with, like Shawn Chacon...

...The Ugly

2004-12-11T12:08:00.000-08:00

It's sad to see one of the great players in your organization leave like Magglio Ordonez did, but it's really sad when he goes and says, "Why not the Cubs?... I think it would be a good place for me. They have great fans. They're sold out every day. They have great pitching and they have a good chance to win it all. All I want to do is win. Winning is my No. 1 priority."

What a slap to the face of White Sox fans who cheered for him and revered him for years! What else does Maggs go on to say?

"I wanted to come back, but they never made me feel comfortable that they wanted me. They never said, 'We want you here. We want you to be our franchise player.' I was almost traded to Boston. How could I feel comfortable they really wanted me after that happened?"

Never made you feel comfortable? $14 million a year isn't "comfortable?" Believe me, if I had a $14 million a year salary, I'd be pretty damn confortable. And about being traded to Boston, remember Magglio that YOU were the one who wouldn't re-sign with the Sox, and thus made you tradeable.

I liked Magglio better when he didn't say anything. Now the truth comes out. Winning is his No. 1 priority, but only after he gets the Sacajuweas. Go ahead Maggs, sign with the Cubs. If you thought Sammy Sosa got booed at Comiskey, you haven't heard anything yet...

The White Sox Decline to Offer Arbitration to Magglio Ordonez

2004-12-07T18:17:00.000-08:00

I was going to wait until tomorrow to post this, but since I’m at work today, and my apartment building (with my computer in it) is being fumigated, I’ll post now. It’s inevitable anyway.

If you’re reading this, then the Sox chose not to offer Magglio Ordonez arbitration, and thus forfeited their right to compensatory draft picks in the next MLB draft. While many Sox fans will blame Magglio and his agent Scott Boras for the “loss,” the White Sox are actually making the smart business decision by not offering arbitration.

Bruce Levine on ESPN radio 1000AM is reporting that the reason Magglio had surgery in Vienna, Austria is because he is suffering from a condition called osteonecrosis, and Vienna has a facility there devoted to the treatment of that condition.

I did a little research on osteonecrosis. It occurs when a segment of the bone loses its blood supply and begins to die. The word osteonecrosis literally means "Bone-Death."

While the exact cause of the disease is still unknown, there are a couple of theories. The first is a stress fracture combined with a specific activity or trauma, like running into Willie Harris at full speed. The second is that there is a build-up of fluid in the bone that puts pressure on blood vessels and diminishes circulation to the bone. The third is that it is steroid induced. I'd say Maggs falls under circumstance one, but, well, I'll throw out circumstance three anyway.

The following are signs and symptoms of osteonecrosis:

Sudden pain on the inside of the knee, perhaps triggered by a specific activity or minor injury
Increased pain at night and with activity
Swelling over the front and inside of the knee
Heightened sensitivity to touch in the area
Limited motion due to pain

Osteonecrosis of the knee develops through four stages, which can be identified by symptoms and X-rays.

Stage I: Symptoms are most intense in the earliest stage. Symptoms may continue for 6 to 8 weeks and then subside. Because X-rays are normal, a positive bone scan is needed to make the diagnosis. Treatment at this point is nonoperative and conservative, focusing on pain relief and protected weight-bearing.

Stage II: It may take several months for the disease to progress to Stage II. At this point, X-rays will show that the rounded edge of the bone is starting to flatten out. An MRI or bone scan can be used to diagnose the disease. A CT scan may also be used to measure the affected area of bone area.

Stage III: By the time the disease reaches stage III (3 to 6 months after onset), it is clearly visible on X-rays and no other diagnostic tests are needed. The articular cartilage covering the bone begins to loosen as the bone itself begins to die. Operative treatments may be considered at this point.

Stage IV: At this point, the bone begins to collapse. The articular cartilage is destroyed, the joint space narrows, and bone spurs may form. Severe osteoarthritis results and joint replacement surgery may be necessary.

In terms of treatment, in the early stages of the disease, treatment is nonoperative. If the affected area is small, this treatment may be all that is needed. Options include:

Medications to reduce the pain
A brace to relieve pressure on the joint surface
A conditioning program with exercises to increase the strengthen of the muscles in your thighs
Activity modifications to reduce knee pain

If more than half of the bone surface is affected, surgical treatment may be required. Several different procedures may be used to treat osteonecrosis of the knee. Among the surgical options are:

Arthroscopic cleansing (debridement) of the joint
Drilling to reduce pressure on the bone surface
Procedures to shift weight-bearing away from the affected area
Replacement of one or both joint surfaces

Basically, what all of this means is that there are some serious doubts that Magglio can ever play baseball again. I hope he does, because no player deserves to have his career cut short because of something like this, and he certainly does not deserve to be vilified for the way he, and his agent, have handled the business end of this. He is trying to get the most he can for himself, and that’s what we’re all trying to do in this world. I think Magglio really does want to come back and play baseball, and I believe he thinks he can. I’m just not sure his knee will cooperate. And the White Sox cannot afford that $14 million risk.

But Sox fans have an equal right to be angry as well. For a team like the White Sox that can’t spend a lot of money, draft picks are the lifeblood of the organization. Of course, there is no guarantee those picks would even pan out (Joe Borchard anyone?) so I’m not seeing them as the huge “loss” that other Sox fans see them as.

This wasn’t the best situation in the world, but it is now over for the White Sox, and they did the best they could. This situation is not over for Magglio. We’ll see how he handles himself in these workouts in Anaheim, and then for whatever team signs him.

The White Sox need to look to FA now to fill the hole in RF.

Interesting Article at Hardball Times

2004-11-30T00:05:00.000-08:00

Well, the Hot-Stove Season is burnin', with rampant rumors of Randy Johnson and Nomar Garciaparra floating around all over the place. I'm of the opinion that they'll be just that. I'm more interested in numbers anyway, and Studes over at the Hardball Times wrote a interesting article comparing teams and their 2004 batting averages with runners in scoring position, and the numbers of runners a team had in scoring position that year. The good news, the White Sox were second best in baseball last season in batting average with runners in scoring position. The bad news, they had the second fewest number of runners in scoring position in all of baseball. He even goes in depth to show Sox players' averages with RISP. Real interesting stuff. Read the article here.

Is Ozzieball Working, in Terms of One-Run Games?

2004-11-27T17:18:00.000-08:00

I was reading an old Bill James article on the use of One-Run game records as a basis of managerial evaluation and, of course, wondered how it applied to the White Sox. The 2004 White Sox, under manager Ozzie Guillen, finished with a record of 28-18 in one-run games last season, which gave them a winning percentage of .609. What's interesting about the James article is that he comes up with a formula to determine a team's expected winning percentage based on the Pythagorem formula for winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed. Of course, there is some modification, and you can read the details in the article.

So, the White Sox, who scored 865 runs and allowed 831, should have finished with a record of 84-78. They ended up 83-79, a game under their expected record. Using James' equation, their expected winning percentage in one-run games was .509, so their .609 winning percentage in one-run games well exceeded expectations. In terms of games, the 2004 White Sox, based on the Pythagorem formula, and the 46 one-run games they played in, should have won 23.4 games. They won 28, so the exceeded expectations by 4.6 games.

Let's look back at 2003, Jerry Manuel's last season. The White Sox were 86-76. They were expected to finish 88-74. In one-run games, they were 18-22, a winning percentage of .450. Based on the Pythagorem formula, their expected winning percentage was .522. In 40 games, they should have won 20.9 games, so they underachieved by 2.9 games. At first glance, it seems as if there was a distinct improvement between the two managers. But not so fast. James concludes that, statistically, winning a lot of one-run games has a persistance of zero, which basically means it's luck. For his career, Manuel was 123-124 in one-run games, a winning percentage of .498. Based on the Pythagorem formula, he should have had a winning percentage of .505. In terms of games, that means Manuel lost 1.7 more games than he was expected to. All things considered, it's a pretty slight deviation, and certainly nothing out of the norm.

James also tries to find what identifiable characteristics can be found in teams they win more one-run games vs. teams that lose more one-run games. He uses the top 50 and worst 50 teams in one-run games since 1950 for his study. Here are the results:

The 50 teams which did well in one-run games had more stolen bases (96-92 on average), more sacrifice bunts (71-67), more complete games (35-31), more saves (34-30), issued fewer walks (513-531), drew more walks (526-520) and had a better ERA (3.77 to 3.91).

The 50 teams which did poorly in one-run games hit more home runs (127-117), scored more runs (674-658), had a higher slugging percentage (.386-.380), a lower on-base percentage (.325-.323), used more relief pitchers (278-257), threw more wild pitches (47-44) and had more balks (8-7). They were more likely to play in hitter's parks (park factors 100.3 vs. 98.5).

Looking at that, it becomes obvious to see why Ozzie and Kenny want guys who gan get on base, move runners over, steal bases, and of course, a better pitching staff. But, although there are some tendancies in teams that win one-run games, it's to a very small degree. More or less, winning one-run games all comes down to luck.

But how much of losing one-run games is based on luck? You'd think the same as winning them, but that's not entirely accurate. James has also found that losing a lot of one-run games is not completely meaningless. There are enough teams that perform well under expectations one season, and then do the same next season to show that it's possible a team, or a manager, can be attributed to how many one-run games they lose.

There's also something else to look at. James also has come up with an equation to determine how many one-run games a team is expected to play in a given season. The formula is .63 divided by the square root of runs per game in the team's context (runs scored+runs allowed divided by 162 games). So, in terms of the White Sox in 2004, based on their runs scored and allowed, they were expected to have 19.5% of their games played be determined by one run, or approx. 31 games. They actually played in 46 one-run games, or 28.4%.

This has some significance, and I've been trying to figure out why the White Sox played in so many more one-run games than they were expected to (15 more, to be precise). My first inclination was the bullpen. In 2004, the bullpen had a 21-21 record, with a 4.31 ERA. But that doesn't seem to have any correlation to the number of one-run games. (Interesting side note: Ozzie used his bullpen less than any other AL manager. They only logged 424.1 innings of work this season.) This question doesn't seem to have an answer at the moment.

In the end, there isn't really any way to determine if Ozzieball is responsible for the marked increase in the one-run games record. Remember, in 2000, Manuel led the Sox to a 28-18 record in one-run games. The difference there is that they won the division that year, and they didn't this year, and in the end that's the only way fans will evaluate managers. One-run games, more or less, come down to luck. As far as if Ozzie's "motivational tactics" are producing more wins in close games, we'll have to wait and see. Right now he's up 4.6 games. But he could just as easily be down 5 next season.

Meet your newest Chicago White Sox: Kevin Walker (RP)...

2004-11-24T21:57:00.000-08:00

Today the White Sox signed Kevin Walker to a one year, $525,000 incentive laden contract, of which only $100,000 is guaranteed. He was once a Padres prospect, had arm troubles, and has bounced around since. That's all there really is to say about the guy. Is he the next Damaso Marte? I hope so, but I doubt it. Servicable at best. But with the White Sox bullpen, that is NOT a bad thing.

Link to the Trib's coverage here.

How Well do the White Sox spend their money?

2004-11-19T20:50:00.000-08:00

If you've been a Sox fan, especially one who visits the message boards over at White Sox Interactive often, you've heard the endless grousing of fans complaining that the current ownership won't spend the money that big-market teams should. The White Sox ownership claims that they aren't a big-market team, despite playing in one of the largest markets in the country. Because they play second fiddle to the Chicago Cubs, they see themselves as a small to mid-market club. So, Sox fans complain every year that the team won't go out and spend the money to bring in the big free agents.

For the past few years, the White Sox have had an annual payroll that has fallen somewhere in the $55-70mil range. What I've been wondering is how good the contracts the White Sox signed have been for them. Luckily, Studes over at the Harball Times has created a useful tool to measure a player's worth by taking into account a player's salary, contract status (free agent, arbitration eligible, etc.), win shares, and replacement levels. The result is called the Net Win Shares Value. A value of $0 means a player played exactly what his contract was worth. A positive value means the player played above the worth of his contract, and therefore was a bargain for his team. A negative value means the player played below his value, and the team "lost" money on his contract.

So, what I've done is put the majority of White Sox players this season into the Net Win Shares Value calculator. I used Dugout Dollars as my salary reference point. In the case of traded players, such as Garcia, Everett, Contreras, Loiaza, etc., I tried to figure out how much the Sox paid them in 2004 by calculating how much they had already been paid by their old team. If there were cash considerations as part of the deal, I subtracted those from whatever was left of the player's salary. It won't be exact, and if my numbers are wrong, please e-mail me with corrections. The idea is to see who the Sox signed to good contracts, who they signed to bad contracts, and how they did overall. On this table, black is positive value, red is negative value.

PLAYER	SALARY	NET WIN SHARES VALUE
Adkins, Jon	$301,000	($1,000)
Alomar Jr., Sandy	$750,000	($1,124,732)
Buerhle, Mark	$3,500,000	$3,713,667
Contreras, Jose	$1,800,000	($936,690)
Cotts, Neal	$301,000	($1,000)
Crede, Joe	$340,000	($1,938,381)
Davis, Ben	$750,000	($913,801)
Everett, Carl	$700,000	$1,226,735
Garcia, Freddy	$3,680,000	($1,363)
Garland, Jon	$2,300,000	($473,797)
Gload, Ross	$302,000	$2,318,244
Harris, Willie	$318,500	$825,225
Jackson, Mike	$500,000	($335,823)
Konerko, Paul	$8,000,000	$1,941,457
Lee, Carlos	$6,500,000	$5,620,253
Loaiza, Esteban	$3,370,000	($1,073,368)
Marte, Damaso	$500,000	$3,596,763
Olivo, Miguel	$160,000	$983,725
Ordonez, Magglio	$14,000,000	($4,969,273)
Perez, Timo	$850,000	($343,453)
Politte, Cliff	$800,000	$320,564
Rowand, Aaron	$340,000	$8,819,113
Schoenweis, Scott	$1,725,000	($1,311,718)
Takatsu, Shingo	$750,000	$5,835,999
Thomas, Frank	$6,000,000	$2,768,515
Uribe, Juan	$350,000	$6,277,938
Valentin, Jose	$5,000,000	$650,000
Wright, Dan	$340,000	($672,794)
Wunsch, Kelly	$800,000	($312,230)
TOTAL	$65,027,500	$30,488,775

Conclusions...

With a total payroll of $65mil, and a Net Win Shares Value of approx. $30.5mil, the White Sox were a $65mil team that played like a $95mil team. While that may sound impressive, I haven't done this test yet on any other teams, so I don't know exactly what the impact of this data is. Suffice to say, the Sox are finding more value in their contracts than they are losing value. Still, they aren't winning any division championships either...

Out of the 29 contracts listed, the White Sox "lost" money on 15 of them, or aprrox. 52% of the contracts.

The best contract was Aaron Rowand, who played $8.8mil better than his near league minimum salary of $340,000.

The worst contract was that of injured Magglio Ordonez. The White Sox "lost" nearly $5mil this year on Maggs. On Frank Thomas' contract, they were still able to get nearly $2.8mil of value from only a half a season of production from Frank.

The most "Valuable" player (salary + net win shares value) was Carlos Lee, at $12,120,253.

The least "Valuable" player (salary + net win shares value) was Joe Crede, at ($1,598,381). This is amount is also far and away from the next least valuable player, which was Sandy Alomar Jr., at ($374,732). Perhaps the Sox better be thinking about a replacement, or Joe better start paying the White Sox to let him play third base for them. Though somehow I doubt Joe has $1.6mil lying around.

Jon Garland signed for 1yr, $3.4mil to avoid arbitration.

2004-11-19T15:22:00.000-08:00

The White Sox signed pitcher Jon Garland to a one year, $3.4mil contract today to avoid arbitration. Read the Chicago Tribune article here.

Garland was 12-11 with a 4.89 ERA last season. He pitched 217 innings, and had a BB/SO ratio of 76/113. His Win Share total for last season was 11.

This contract seems high for a pitcher of Garland's caliber. Using the Net Win Shares Value calculator over at The Hardball Times gives us a pretty decent indicator of a how much of a bargain, or loss, a players contract was to their team. A Net Win Shares Value of $0 means the player played exactly the worth of his contract. A positive dollar value means the player performed more than his contract was worth, and was therefore a bargain to his team. A negative dollar value is the exact opposite.

YEAR	CONTRACT VALUE	NET WIN SHARES VALUE
2004	$2,300,000	$-473,797
2005	$3,400,000	$-1,662,483

Last season, Jon Garland had 11 total win shares, and was expected to have 12. At $2,300,000, and being arbitration eligible, his Net Win Shares Value was $-473,797. So the Sox lost, in theory, a half million on that contract.

I also plugged in his new contract, and kept the win share totals the same, just to experiment. If Jon shows absolutely no improvement, his Net Win Shares Value is $-1,662,483.

If the Sox are to get value on this contract, Garland is going to need to have an increase of only 2 win shares. I guess the Sox feel he's capable of doing this, but his BB/SO ratio hasn't made any dramatic shifts to sell me on his "breakout season." I'm expecting same old, same old...

Prove me wrong, Jon...

Welcome to Sabermetric White Sox

2004-11-19T14:37:00.000-08:00

Welcome to Sabermetric White Sox, home of statistical analysis of the White Sox. I've just started this thing up, and I'm looking at adding a message board somewhere. Please check back for more updates.